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Evaluating the Bull Market Today it is almost impossible to pick up a financial journal without seeing news on the bull market that some consider to be overvalued Overvalued or fairly valued only the future will show the truth Either way this market is one that has shown greater run ups and returns than any other market in history Reference Appendix 1a Recently the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached historical highs and then receded back to previous levels leaving investors who are used to consistent and record setting gains month after month baffled Both the Dow Jones and the S P 500 indices have seen modest and even flat performances over the past three months Reference 1b A recent article that was published on the front page of the Wall Street Journal emphasized that returns were flat due to the fact that investors were concerned of the possible on set of inflation If these concerns are warranted and inflation is thus expected the Bull market may very well be over This after all makes sense inflation has slowed and stopped many run-ups in the past and the onset of inflation now could very well do the same While the article introduced some possibilities it said nothing of the likelihood the causes of the Feds reactions to and the probability of expected inflationary increases in the future This paper is thus dedicated to expanding on these ideas by exploring the rationality of these concerns by examining the circumstances surrounding inflation It is my speculation that the Bull market may eventually correct itself in the future but not in the short term due to immediate inflation That is that the market was in fact flat due investors concerns but actual imperative inflation does not look to be expected in the near future In order to begin to understand the nature of market trends and forces one must first consider the
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