scroll to top
Stuck on your essay?
Get ideas from this essay and see how your work stacks up
Word Count: 2,225
1 SYNOPSIS The purpose of this project is to construct a model to attempt to forecast the interim earnings of Harley Davidson Harley Davidson Inc manufactures premium motorcycles recreational vehicles specialized commercial vehicles and parts and accessories The Companys Motorcycle Division manufactures and markets heavyweight touring and custom motorcycles and a broad range of related products including riding apparel motorcycle accessories and replacement parts My purpose is to construct a model using six years worth of historical data and try to predict the earnings for the following year I will use the interim earnings for the years 1989-1994 and divide them into 24 equal quarters The model uses a quantative forecasting method called the Multiplicative Time Series Model It is based on the assumption that there are four factors that have influenced the time series in the past They are 1 Trend 2 Cycle 3 Season 4 Irregular These factors will also be influences in the forecast year as well If I isolate them I will be able to forecast the earnings for 1995 Finally I will measure the accuracy of my forecast in order to decide if the model is capable of giving accurate forecasts The actual time series are expressed in this model as the product of the four components Yt TCSI 3 RESULTS During the years of 1989 - 1994 Harley Davidson Inc experienced an overall increase in interim earnings The peak of their earnings occurred in the second quarter of 1994 with a 63 while the lowest earnings occurred during the fourth quarter of 1991 with only a 09 31 CMA Chart 2 shows the Center Moving Average and Harley Davidsons actual interim earnings The CMAV is the product of two factors Cycle and Trend It represents the values of interim earnings if Trend and Cycle were considered the only factors influencing them As a deductive result the discrepancy between the actual sales and the CMAV
@Kibin is a lifesaver for my essay right now!!
- Sandra Slivka, student @ UC Berkeley
Wow, this is the best essay help I've ever received!
- Camvu Pham, student @ U of M
If I'd known about @Kibin in college, I would have gotten much more sleep
- Jen Soust, alumni @ UCLA