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Two of the primary tasks in the world of Economics are prediction and evaluation This assignment illustrates at a rudimentary level how models techniques and methods constructed or borrowed from Economic Theory or other Sciences respectively are used to help accomplish these tasks To do so we consider a standard theoretical model of consumer choices in an economy in which the only activity is the exchange of goods Due to the above-mentioned we can say that the most powerful technique used to predict the consequences of policies or future trends is modeling A model is an abstraction intended to convey the essence of some particular aspect of the real world Most economic models assume the existence of adequate information yet information is a costly and scarce resource Good models predict well enough to increase our understanding of certain situations even though they may not predict them perfectly and there may be related situations in which the same models do not predict as well as expected Last but not least there are models that constructed without using any numerical data these are based entirely on economic theory We shall begin by looking at some of the ways in which forecasting techniques can help us to predict future trends Most business and economic decisions rest upon forecasts of future conditions Methods of forecasting may be roughly categorized as follows Opinion polling Mechanical extrapolations Barometric techniques Statistical and econometric methods Finally forecasting techniques vary widely in their accuracy and sophistication The most accurate technique is to be preferred subject to the availability of data expertise and finance and to the nature of the forecast required OPINION POLLING The assumption here is that by asking people who are likely to
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