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Word Count: 585
The world is settling into three major blocs and only one is especially interesting from an investment viewpoint The first bloc is Europe which includes the expanded European Union and will eventually include Russia and the UK The problems in Europe are well-known The population is aging the economy is mature the continent is burdened by an accumulation of socialist policies the entrepreneurial spirit is dampened by regulation and bureaucracy and people put living the good life ahead of working hard The American bloc isnt much better These economies are also relatively mature although there are opportunities below the Equator The US has grown soft No politician can propose anything that involves sacrifice The price of oil soars and you dont do anything to seriously encourage conservation The war in Iraq causes a major increase in the budget deficit but you believe growth will generate tax revenues to take care of the problem I am more concerned about the trade deficit Your manufactured products are uncompetitive and you dont provide the necessary incentives to expand the knowledge-based industries where you have an advantage The increasing cost of healthcare and retirement benefits will be a drag on US profitability and will discourage investment Litigation costs are a terrible drag Only in America does someone think when something goes wrong Who do I sue As a result the economy will grow slowly and the dollar will continue to decline Eventually the dollar will reach a point where investment in the US will become attractive again and some of your products will be more competitive Looking out further there are promising prospects in nanotechnology and biotechnology where you are the leader But those are four to eight years ahead of us Then there is Asia which is only beginning a long cycle of opportunity Everyone is worried about whether China will have a hard or soft landing but a few years from now this will be a forgotten
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