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Company Business Harley-Davidson is the leading factor in the US heavyweight motorcycle market with a 45 percent market share HDI holds a 28 percent world market share in that class Summary and Recommendation Shares of this Pershing Recommended List Selection weakened as a result of management taking a conservative stance in planning 2004 production volumes HDIs position is due to the possibility that the start-up of a new plant and the introduction of new models could hurt production It is not due to demand for its products which remains strong The good news is that over the years management has been successful in surpassing its original production goals We believe that could occur next year and therefore view the stock as especially attractive Our 12-month target price of 62 suggests potential capital appreciation of 30 percent Recently reported third quarter earnings were substantially above both Street and our expectations HDI gained market share in all of its markets Operating leverage and a richer mix boosted margins and its financial subsidiary had another solid quarter This years third quarter earnings were favorably affected by foreign exchange and were less affected by model changeover costsdisruptions than last year Heavyweight motorcycle registrations in the US grew 12 percent in 2002 despite soft economic conditions HDIs registrations grew 18 percent in 2002 Through the first eight months of 2003 industry registrations rose 45 percent while for the first months HDIs registrations grew 129 percent Industry growth in the mid single-digit area is forecast for 2003 with growth accelerating in 2004 to the high single-digit range HDI is projected to continue to gain share HDI is the industry leader with strong brand and product recognition Management is focused on developing new products or improving existing ones providing marketingfinancial support to its dealerscustomersclubs and in developingsupporting programs that encourage new motorcycle riders HDI should benefit from the carryover from its successful 100th anniversary world tour and festivities which built on its
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