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The Monty Hall problem is derived from a similar dilemma that was frequently brought up on the television game show Lets Make A Deal hosted by Monty Hall Though the game shows version usually involved some grand prize and then other smaller prizes to compare it to the concepts of the two versions are the same Here is the scenario There are three doors One of the three doors is hiding a prize while the other two are empty or contain something undesirable such as a goat The contestant is asked to try and guess which door is the prize door If the contestant guesses correctly he wins the prize Once the contestant makes his choice the host says something like Are you sure that is the right door How about this Ill up your chances and open one of the other two doors The door is opened to reveal a goat Now do you still think the prize is behind your original choice or would you like to switch to the other closed door The contestant must make a decision between the two doors remaining closed Here is the big question Should the contestant stay with his initial selection or should he switch and does it really matterThis question was brought to the attention of Marilyn vos Savant and plublished in Ask Marilyn her column in PARADE Magazine Her reply caused an uproar and she received several letters many from mathematics professors and probability experts claiming that her answer was totally false In her reply she had said that the contestant was more likely to win if he switched I agree with this theory The controversy from Marilyns column spread to other publications and spurred on a huge debate over the probability of winning if the contestant stays with or switches his choiceAt first glance the probability of winning seems obvious After the host opens one of the doors two are left closed each
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