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Introduction We make many decisions in our everyday activity and sometimes we are more or less logical about them The decision that we make are based on beliefs concerning the possibility of uncertain events such as the outcome of an election However what determines these beliefs How do we measure the probability of an uncertain event This essay will show that we rely on certain heuristic principle in order to guide us make the best decision In general these heuristics can be useful but can lead to severe and systematic errors Most of us live in a world of full inboxes and shifting deadlines We often need heuristics a mental shortcut or rule of thumb and biases as a way of navigating the information decisions and choices A heuristic might help us to find solutions which are good but perhaps not the very best they can be Representativeness The representativeness heuristic is based on the fact that we tend to judge events by how much they resemble other events with which we are familiar In so doing we ignore relevant facts that should be included in our decision making process but are not The use of this heuristic can however systematically leads one to make poor judgements in some circumstances One of the factors that have no effect on representativeness but should have a major effect on probability is the prior probability or base-rate frequency of the outcomes For example John is a street-wise outgoing person who talked quickly and wore smart clothes What is the probability that John is a salesman If you judge him to be representative of what salesmen are like that is he fits your stereotypical view of a salesman then you would assume that his chances of being a salesman are high If people evaluate probability by representative-ness therefore prior probabilities will be neglected This hypothesis was tested in an experiment where prior probabilities were manipulated and
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